Selling or Buying This Winter? Why Fewer Listings Change the Math

Most people in the GTA treat winter like a pause button. Sellers wait for the spring tulips, buyers wait for "more choice," and everyone tells themselves they'll look again in March.

October's numbers say that plan has a hole in it. The supply of homes for sale is shrinking faster than the number of buyers, and that changes the math for both sides of the table this winter.

Listings are falling faster than sales

TRREB's October Market Watch shows 5,603 home sales across the GTA, down 7.9% from October 2025. That's the headline most people saw.

The more important number sits right beside it. New listings dropped to 14,173, down 11.9% year over year. Fewer people are putting their homes on the market, and that drop is steeper than the drop in buyers.

There were still 25,098 active listings at the end of the month, so this isn't a shortage. But the gap between sellers and buyers is closing, and it's closing from the seller's side. Seasonally adjusted, sales, new listings and prices all edged up from September.

Buyers still hold the cards, for now

Don't read that as a seller's market. It isn't. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark was down 4.3% from a year ago, and the average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%. The average home sold for 97% of its list price and took 31 days to sell.

TRREB's chief information officer, Jason Mercer, put it plainly: GTA homebuyers "continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year."

So if you're buying, this winter is a good window. You can still ask for conditions, a better closing date, or a lower price, and you'll often get them. My point is that the window may not stay this wide. If listings keep thinning out into the new year, the spring crowd will be fighting over fewer homes.

The rate hike is the wild card

The other piece is borrowing costs. On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5%. The Bank said inflation has been near 3% since April and could reach about 3.5% by year end, mostly because of energy prices. It also said there "could be a need to increase the policy rate further."

The next decision is December 9. Nobody can promise you what happens that day.

What I can tell you is how to protect yourself. If you're buying in the next few months, get a pre-approval with a rate hold now. Most lenders will hold a rate for around 90 to 120 days. If rates rise, you're covered. If they don't, you've lost nothing.

If your mortgage renews in 2027, talk to a broker this winter, not the week before your renewal letter arrives.

Why winter can work for sellers

Here's the part most sellers miss. When fewer homes come on the market, the ones that do get more attention. Every serious buyer looking in December and January is looking at a smaller set of homes, and yours could be one of them.

Winter buyers also tend to be serious. Nobody tours homes in a snowstorm for fun. They're relocating, their lease is ending, or their family is growing.

That said, buyers are still negotiating hard, so winter is not the time to test a high price. My advice to sellers right now:

• Price it right on day one. A home priced for the market today gets showings. A home priced for 2022 sits, and buyers notice.
• Fix the small stuff. Leaky taps, scuffed walls and burnt-out bulbs are the first things a buyer uses to talk the price down.
• Light it up. Winter days are short. Bright, warm lighting in photos and showings makes a real difference.
• Know your next move. If you're buying too, line up your financing before you list.

Your next step

Every street in the GTA is its own market, and averages only tell you so much. Before you decide to wait for spring, find out what your home would sell for this winter, or what you could actually afford to buy with today's rates.

Book a quick call with Gary or get a free home value, and we'll show you the real numbers for your neighbourhood. No pressure and no pitch, just a clear picture so you can make the call yourself.